Energy markets shifted higher in October, reversing September’s softness as natural gas and power forwards climbed on mounting winter risk. Natural gas rallied across hubs, with Henry Hub winter strips gaining $0.50–$0.70/MMBtu and Northeast basis spreads widening sharply. Algonquin Citygate maintained a steep $7–8/MMBtu premium over Henry Hub, while Transco Z6 NY moved back above $3.00. Western hubs also firmed, keeping seasonal premiums intact despite healthy supply.
Power markets followed gas higher in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE. Winter peak strips strengthened, with ISO-NE still commanding the highest prices as pipeline and fuel constraints keep reliability risks elevated. PJM and NYISO also reflect congestion and gas-burn sensitivity, while longer-dated 2026 contracts eased slightly on softer fundamentals.
Overall, October is reinforcing that while storage inventories are strong, rising gas prices, LNG-driven tightness, and persistent regional constraints are keeping risk priced in. As the heating season begins, both gas and power markets remain poised for heightened volatility should cold weather materialize.
