After February’s weather-driven surge, March pricing reflects a broad retreat in winter risk as forecasts turn milder and supply fundamentals reassert control. The 12-month natural gas strip fell from $4.37/MMBtu in February to $3.53/MMBtu in March (down roughly $0.84), driven by weather normalization, near-record domestic production, and a more comfortable storage outlook. At the same time, escalating conflict in the Middle East has begun to introduce a modest geopolitical premium that reflects growing sensitivity to global LNG flows, potential shipping disruptions, and export-pull uncertainty, rather than a direct increase in U.S. supply risk.
Power markets moved in lockstep, with forward on-peak pricing across PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE moderating sharply from February peaks as fuel availability concerns eased and markets shifted toward a more typical spring shoulder-season posture. Looking ahead, the market’s focus is increasingly split between near-term global risk (LNG linked geopolitical volatility) and longer-term structural tightening, especially in PJM, where accelerating data center load growth and record-high capacity outcomes are intensifying the debate over reserve margins, reliability, and how new supply should be procured and paid for.
