Natural gas extended its decline in August, and the bigger picture is how far the curve has fallen from a year ago. The 12-month Henry Hub strip eased to $3.162/MMBtu, down about 20% from last summer, and the Aug-26 prompt settled at $2.725, off roughly 31% year over year. Winter still carries a premium, with Jan-27 at $4.210, but the curve has reset materially lower as record production and comfortable storage outweigh even record LNG demand.
The story this month is the divergence. While gas has softened, forward power has held firm and, in the load-heavy zones, firmed further. Dominion’s Cal 2027 on-peak near $104/MWh now sits about $52/MWh above COMED, and the Northeast holds its structural premium. This month’s update examines why gas has reset lower, why that may open an opportune window for buyers, and how structural power demand keeps regional markets supported through the second half of 2026.
