Energy markets enter winter with diverging trends. Natural gas forwards ease through November as forecasts called for a milder 2025-26 heating season, while power forwards climbed across major ISOs on tightening supply-demand balances and firm winter load expectations Storage near record highs and steady production have tempered gas volatility, yet regional premiums in the Northeast remain elevated on winter fuel risks.
Power prices strengthened month-over-month in PJM, NYISO, and ISO-NE, reflecting tightening reserve margins and limited new generation. ISO-NE led gains, with January–February forwards up nearly 10% on deliverability constraints and cold-weather exposure. In contrast, Western markets stayed stable, supported by renewables and mild demand. With national heating degree days tracking just below normal and El Niño transitioning neutral, markets face a winter outlook that’s balanced on paper—but still vulnerable to short bursts of volatility if temperatures turn sharply colder.
